(NFF25) (TGFF25) (NGF25) (UNG) (BOIL) (KOLD) (ZSF25) (ZSH25) (ZSK25) (SOYB) 

“Why a colder end to autumn is helping natural gas prices rally. What about soybeans?”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

• Wednesday Evening Report - November 20, 2024

In each of the last three winters, a trader could wait for a pre-winter rally in natural gas and sell call options or buy puts each time. Warming global oceans, the Arctic, and other climatic factors helped natural gas prices fall some 30-50% from their November highs by the end of winter.

• Will this winter be different?
• Could a longer-term bull market ensue?

Up until late last week we were in the bearish camp but began catching wind “a few days ago” that the negative EPO index (shown here: huge block north of Alaska) combined with other teleconnections would suggest “much colder and snowier” maps for parts of the Midwest and Northeast into early December.

The key to this winter’s weather will be whether or not we have NO Niña, but a neutral event. In my opinion, La Niña will not form, and one reason why for the most part, I have been “mostly" bearish soybeans since last June. Excellent South American weather and a stronger dollar should continue to pressure soybean prices.

So what about Thursday’s EIA that could be bearish? How about the stellar rally in European natural gas in parts of Europe that are not importing gas from Russia? Will the weather warm in Europe and create spreading opportunities between the U.S. vs European & Dutch natural gas markets? Or, will it be a cold winter in Europe, as well?

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Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors

in the commodity risk management industry.